Some thoughts on where we stand following this week’s election and what the political outlook may look like heading into 2028.
The Current Political Landscape
Democrats will take control of both the House and Senate, with a substantial majority in the House of Representatives. At least 253 seats will be held by Democrats, and possibly more, compared with the 218 seats needed for control.
In the Senate, Democrats will also gain control, with at least 54 seats and possibly as many as 56. The key numbers in the Senate are 51 seats for a majority, 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and 67 votes to convict in an impeachment trial.
One important consideration is that current Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania frequently votes with Republicans. His seat will be up for reelection in 2028, giving Democrats an opportunity to elect someone who is more consistently aligned with the party.
A two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress (290 votes in the House and 67 votes in the Senate) is required to override a presidential veto. While achieving those numbers is unlikely, there may be certain issues on which bipartisan support could make it possible.
The Democratic Objectives for 2028
Looking ahead to 2028, the Democratic Party’s primary objectives will be to dramatically change America’s course by winning the presidency, increasing their Senate majority to 60 seats, and retaining control of the House.
I believe there is an extremely high likelihood that the horrors, atrocities, and corruption coming out of the White House will only increase over the next two years. Trump may well retaliate against the country and the world in response to this week’s election results, particularly now that he no longer has to consider how his actions might affect a future election during his time in office.
Assuming Democrats maintain their demonstrated ability to mobilize voters, it is reasonably likely that they will retain their majorities in both the House and Senate in 2028 while also winning the presidency.
The most difficult challenge may be increasing their Senate majority to 60 seats. Reaching that threshold would allow Democrats to advance much of their legislative agenda without facing the threat of a filibuster.
The Senate: The Road to 60 Seats
There are some important developments involving Senate vacancies that will affect the political landscape before 2028.
Two sitting U.S. senators whose terms extend beyond 2026 were elected to gubernatorial positions, creating vacancies in their Senate seats. In Minnesota, Democrat Amy Klobuchar’s seat will be temporarily filled by a Democrat, followed by a special election in November 2027 to fill the remainder of her term through January 2031. In Tennessee, Republican Marsha Blackburn’s seat will be filled by a Republican, with a special election during the 2028 general election cycle to complete the remainder of her term.
There are 34 Senate seats scheduled for regular elections in 2028. Of those, 16 are currently held by Democrats (including John Fetterman’s seat), while 18 are held by Republicans.
The seats currently held by Democrats are:
Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Washington.
The seats currently held by Republicans are:
Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, and Wisconsin.
The Democrats therefore face two major challenges in 2028:
Flip four to six Senate seats currently held by Republicans.
Retain their existing Senate seats while replacing John Fetterman in Pennsylvania with a Democrat who consistently supports the party’s legislative priorities.
Given the results of the 2026 election, I would characterize this goal as challenging but feasible.
The Path to the White House
The road to the White House in 2028 deserves special attention.
Unless the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) takes effect, there is no realistic path for Republicans to win the presidency without carrying Texas.
In this week’s election, the Texas gubernatorial race, the U.S. Senate race, and the other statewide contests went to Democrats, ending years of Republican control. This represents a potentially historic political shift. Expect Texas to become one of the biggest focal points of the 2028 presidential election.
Elon Musk alone reportedly spent at least $474 million on the 2026 elections, including $224 million in Texas. That level of spending underscores just how important Texas has become in the national political landscape.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is enacted, the political dynamics of the 2028 presidential election could look quite different.
The NPVIC is an agreement among participating U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all of their electoral votes to the presidential ticket that wins the nationwide popular vote, regardless of which candidate wins their individual state. Introduced in 2006, the compact is designed to ensure that the candidate receiving the most votes nationally becomes president. It would take effect only when participating jurisdictions collectively hold enough electoral votes to guarantee that outcome.
As of September 2026, eighteen states and the District of Columbia have joined the compact. Together, they control 222 electoral votes, representing approximately 41% of the Electoral College and 82% of the 270 electoral votes needed to activate the agreement.
Following the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats have gained control of enough state government trifectas to potentially advance the compact. A trifecta occurs when one political party controls the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature. The states in question include Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If these states join the compact the total could reach at least 283 electoral votes, 13 more than the 270 needed to activate it ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Even if this happens, legal and constitutional questions could still delay or prevent implementation.
Whether this actually happens remains to be seen. If I had to guess, my personal suspicion is that the compact will eventually become effective, but not until AFTER the 2028 election.
Looking Ahead
The bottom line is that Democrats appear to have a viable path to maintaining control of Congress and winning the presidency in 2028. Their greatest challenge will likely be expanding their Senate majority to 60 seats, while Texas could become the defining battleground in the presidential race.
The next two years will be critical. How Democrats respond to their newfound congressional majorities, how the Trump administration responds to this week’s election results, and whether the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact advances will all help determine what the political landscape looks like in 2028.
The power is in our hands. You and I and our voices and actions will continue to play the most important role in shaping this future.
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