Did Oil Prices Hit Bottom, or is this a Dead Cat Bounce?

In yesterday’s post we looked at the price of oil from a historical perspective and discussed the factors leading to the steep decline over the past year.

So today let’s take a look at what might happen to the price of oil and gasoline in the future.

First a disclaimer… I’m not an energy industry analyst. I’m not a stock or commodity trader. And until a few weeks ago I’d never been terribly concerned with nor knowledgeable of the factors that influence short term changes in the price of oil or gasoline. If you think being an “expert” is important, just read this December 11, 2014 article from the Wall Street Journal: WSJ Survey: Oil Prices Are Near Their Bottom. The “experts” then predicted that the price of oil would not go any lower than $60/barrel, and would rise to around $65/barrel by the end of the year. Instead, prices continued to drop to around $45/barrel by mid-January, rebounding (at least for the moment) to $50.56/barrel today as this article goes to press.

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The Frackers Did Labor and Toil

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Graphic via Domino Convenient Stores.

“The frackers did labor and toil
To extract it out of the soil
But OPEC production was high
And demand less than supply
So down went the price of the oil.”
–Me

Before we start looking at the repercussions of the precipitous drop in the price of oil over the past year, let’s first set the stage in this post by putting the price drop into an historical context and understanding the factors that led to its occurring.

This graph shows historical crude oil prices per barrel for the past 10 years, trading at $49.07 as I post this article:

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There’s a Storm Coming, Mr. Wayne

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“There’s a storm coming, Mr. Wayne. You and your friends better batten down the hatches, because when it hits, you’re all gonna wonder how you ever thought you could live so large and leave so little for the rest of us.”
 
Selina Kyle (Anne Hathaway) to Bruce Wayne (Christian Bale) in The Dark Knight Rises. Photo by Ron Phillips – © 2012 – WARNER BROS. ENTERTAINMENT INC. AND LEGENDARY PICTURES FUNDING, LLC


There’s a storm coming. I can feel it in my bones.

(Dominoes tiles are, not so coincidentally, also known as “bones.”)

We live in an increasingly dynamic and dangerous world. Have you ever struggled to understand how the repercussions of disruptive events, like the dramatic drop in the price of oil, the expansion of global terrorism, the fiscal consequences of having an out-of-control national debt, or the environmental effects of global warming, will affect you, your family and your business?

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DOminoes are activists. Their first name is DO.

“DOminoes aren’t much for sitting around in a box on a shelf somewhere. They prefer to engage minds and entice them into thinking up winning strategies. Dominoes are activists. Their first name is DO.” –– M. Daniel Nickle

Gulp!

So it is time to launch my first new venture in 10 years.

Thinking about the 10 million things we will need to focus on over the coming months to turn The Domino Principle™ into something that will be hugely and positively impactful for people around the world is, to be honest, a bit overwhelming and scary. But mostly, it is just plain thrilling and exciting.

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Strategies for taking command of our lives through seeing "deep repercussions" in world events and realizing how chain reactions can produce future outcomes.